Who will win the World Cup? Africans don’t think Africa will, except in the qualifying nations

Africans are most expecting Brazil or Germany to win the FIFA World Cup, with very few Africans outside of the qualifying nations expecting an African win.

Yet 43 percent of Nigerian think Nigeria will win, and 49 percent of Senegalese think Senegal will win, according to a poll across six African nations released today by GeoPoll, the leading provider of fast, high-quality research from Africa.

“Across Africa, World Cup fever is running high, with the majority of Africans planning to watch the contest. However, GeoPoll data highlights the interesting facts that very few are aware of which African nations have qualified, and even fewer are predicting an African win,” said Nick Becker, CEO of GeoPoll.

In a survey of 2400 respondents across Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa and Tanzania, GeoPoll found that respondents were fairly evenly split in believing that either Brazil or Germany was most likely to win the cup, with 22 percent predicting a win by Brazil and 20 percent forecasting a German win.

However, in South Africa, 26 percent of men believe Brazil will come out glorious, and 26 percent believe Germany will, but South African women lean more towards Brazil, with 20 percent predicting a win for the South American nation, while just 13 percent think Germany will win.

From Africa’s five qualifying teams of Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal, and Tunisia, the South African public is expecting little, with the greatest hopes being the 1 percent of men and 3 percent of women predicting a Nigerian win.

Other African teams get a smattering of win predictions, with 1 percent of South African women believing Senegal will win, but another 1 percent also predicting that each of Angola, Namibia, Ethiopia, Ghana, Zambia and Zimbabwe will win, none of whom are participating, and 19 percent forecasting a South African win, with South Africa also having failed to qualify.

Across South African men, 6 percent are expecting a win from non-qualifiers – 4 percent for South Africa, and 2 percent for Ghana – but, apart from the small hopes for Nigeria, none are predicting a win from Egypt, Morocco, Senegal or Tunisia.

The same assessments are fairly similarly reflected in each of Kenya, Ghana and Tanzania.

But in Nigeria and Senegal, football followers see it differently. According to 43 percent of the men of both nations, their own teams are set to win. In Nigeria, 44 percent of the women are of the same view in predicting a Nigerian win.

However, the greatest patriotism and optimism vote goes to Senegalese women, 66 percent of whom are expecting Senegal to win the World Cup.

“Clearly, for nations that have seen their own teams through both of the qualifying rounds, national confidence is high. But for the rest of Africa, not tied by national patriotism or influenced by the celebrations in qualifying thus far, the perspective is more global – and fans are not rating Africa’s chances too highly,” said Nick.

Yet, despite the division between the ‘ins’ and the ‘outs’ on the chances of an African win, passion is running high for the event continent-wide, with more than 70 percent of Africans planning to watch the contest, and the majority of them from home.

Set to be watched by a home audience of more than 600m in Africa, and, overall, by more than 850m African viewers, the World Cup remains the continent’s largest single entertainment, drawing on football passion continent-wide, even as Africans watch with Brazil, Germany, and to a lesser extent Spain, in their sights as the likely winners.

Download the free 2018 World Cup Insights Report here:

About GeoPoll

GeoPoll is a leader in providing fast, high-quality market research from areas that are difficult to access using traditional methods. Working with clients including global brands, media houses, and international development groups, GeoPoll facilitates projects that measure ROI of TV advertisements, demonstrate demand for new products, and assess food security around the world.

GeoPoll combines a robust mobile surveying platform that has the ability to conduct research via multiple modes with a database of over 240 million respondents in more than 60 countries. Strengths lie in GeoPoll’s ability to target extremely specific populations, deploy surveys in multiple countries, and provide expert guidance on how to collect accurate, reliable data through the mobile phone.




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